La Liga Spain

Alaves

Home

vs Fri 28 Aug, 19:30 UTC Prediction sealed

Villarreal

Away

Dixon-Coles forecast

Match probabilities

Fair odds · no margin

Home 31% 3.19 fair odds

Draw 24% 4.12 fair odds

Away 45% 2.25 fair odds

Expected goals 1.33 – 1.62 Alaves · Villarreal

Total goals 2.5 57% over 43% under · 1.77 fair odds

The scorecard, once a week

Every Monday: how many matches we graded, our log loss, the closing line's, and the gap between them. Nothing else — no picks, no promotions. You are subscribing to a report card, and it arrives whether or not it flatters us.