The live record · updated after every matchday
How we are actually doing
One question, asked the same way every week: over the matches we published before kickoff, is our log loss below the closing line or above it? Lower is better. This page shows the answer whatever it is.
Nothing graded yet
12 predictions published and waiting on results. A scorecard needs a few hundred matches before it means much — this one will fill up slowly and in public. In the meantime the method page carries the walk-forward backtest, clearly labelled as a backtest.
The scorecard, once a week
Every Monday: how many matches we graded, our log loss, the closing line's, and the gap between them. Nothing else — no picks, no promotions. You are subscribing to a report card, and it arrives whether or not it flatters us.
What this page will never do
No ROI headline
Return on investment over a few hundred bets is mostly noise, and it is the number every tipster picks because it is the easiest to flatter. Log loss cannot be cherry-picked.
No hidden window
Every graded match since the first publication is in the numbers above. There is no "since we improved the model" start date.
No quiet edits
The ledger is a hash chain in a public repository. If a past prediction changed, this site would say so itself.