La Liga Spain

Real Madrid

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vs Sun 30 Aug, 15:00 UTC Kickoff passed

Malaga

Away

Dixon-Coles forecast

Match probabilities scored vs close

Fair odds · no margin

scored vs close means a public closing price exists for this market in this division, so the forecast is compared with the market on the scorecard and can be shown to lose. forecast only means no free closing benchmark exists for it, so it is measured against guessing and is never presented as an edge claim. sealed, not scored is weaker still: nothing on this site puts a number beside it yet, so it is shown as context and is evidence of nothing until something does. Every market on this card carries one of the three, and they differ line by line — the 2.5 goals line is scored against the close where this division's source carries it and the other lines are not. All three are sealed before kickoff and none of them is ever rewritten.

Home 79% 1.27 fair odds

Draw 14% 6.86 fair odds

Away 7% 14.75 fair odds

Total goals

Goals

Fair odds · no margin

Expected goals 2.44 – 0.57 Real Madrid · Malaga

Expected total 3.02 Sealed with the prediction

Every goal-total line sealed with this prediction, and what scores each one.
Line	Over	Under	Scored against
2.5	58% 1.72	42% 2.38	scored vs close

This fixture was sealed before the full ladder existed, so it carries the 2.5 line and no other and it is read straight out of 2026-08-28.json — nothing on this table is recomputed. The tags are not the same for all six and that is the point: football-data.co.uk publishes a closing price for the 2.5 line and for no other, so 2.5 is compared with the market on the scorecard and the other five are compared with nothing. A line with no benchmark is not a weaker edge claim; it is not an edge claim.

Exact total goals sealed, not scored

0 4.9%
1 14.8%
2 22.3%
3 22.4%
4 16.9%
5 10.2%
6 5.1%
7 2.2%
8 or more 1.2%

These 9 outcomes are one partition of the same distribution: every way the match can end is in exactly one of them, nothing is left in an "any other" line, and they are rounded in a single pass, so the printed figures add to exactly 100.0.

Odd or even total sealed, not scored

Even 50.1%
Odd 49.9%

These 2 outcomes are one partition of the same distribution: every way the match can end is in exactly one of them, nothing is left in an "any other" line, and they are rounded in a single pass, so the printed figures add to exactly 100.0.

Who scores

Both teams to score, clean sheets, win to nil

Dixon–Coles

Real Madrid clean sheet sealed, not scored

Yes 56.4%
No 43.6%

Malaga clean sheet sealed, not scored

Yes 8.7%
No 91.3%

Real Madrid win to nil sealed, not scored

Yes 51.5%
No 48.5%

Malaga win to nil sealed, not scored

Yes 3.8%
No 96.2%

A clean sheet is the opponent failing to score, so Real Madrid's clean sheet is the column of the grid below at nil; a win to nil is that and a win. BTTS is sealed as a number in the entry and is measured against guessing on the scorecard. The four beside it are not sealed as numbers and nothing scores them — they are recomputed here from the sealed expected goals and the division's sealed low-score correction.

By how much

Winning margin sealed, not scored

Recomputed from sealed inputs

Real Madrid by 3+ 33.4%
Real Madrid by 2 22.8%
Real Madrid by 1 22.5%
Draw 14.6%
Malaga by 1 5.3%
Malaga by 2 1.2%
Malaga by 3+ 0.2%

These 7 outcomes are one partition of the same distribution: every way the match can end is in exactly one of them, nothing is left in an "any other" line, and they are rounded in a single pass, so the printed figures add to exactly 100.0.

Each side separately

Goals by team sealed, not scored

Recomputed from sealed inputs

Real Madrid sealed, not scored

0 8.7%
1 21.2%
2 25.9%
3 21.1%
4 12.9%
5 6.3%
6 or more 3.9%

Malaga sealed, not scored

0 56.4%
1 32.3%
2 9.3%
3 1.8%
4 0.2%
5 <0.1%
6 or more <0.1%

These 7 outcomes are one partition of the same distribution: every way the match can end is in exactly one of them and nothing is left in an "any other" line. At least one of them falls below a tenth of a percent and is shown as the floor rather than as 0.0%, because the model did not rule it out — so the printed figures here do NOT add to 100.0, and the tenths underneath them do.

These are the row and column totals of the correct-score grid below, which is why they stop at the same 5 goals it does and fold the rest into one bucket — a reader who wants to check one against the other can.

Scoreline distribution

Correct score sealed, not scored

Every exact score · tail included

Real Madrid goals Malaga goals

Chance of each exact score. Rows are goals scored by Real Madrid, columns goals scored by Malaga. Scores above 5 goals are in the three buckets below the table.
Goals	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	4.9%	2.8%	0.8%	0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%
1	12.0%	6.9%	2.0%	0.4%	<0.1%	<0.1%
2	14.6%	8.4%	2.4%	0.5%	0.1%	<0.1%
3	11.9%	6.8%	2.0%	0.4%	<0.1%	<0.1%
4	7.3%	4.2%	1.2%	0.2%	<0.1%	<0.1%
5	3.6%	2.0%	0.6%	0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%

Real Madrid 6+ Malaga 0–5 3.8%
Real Madrid 0–5 Malaga 6+ <0.1%
Real Madrid 6+ Malaga 6+ <0.1%

The 36 cells and the three buckets account for the whole distribution: every result the match can have is in exactly one of them, so nothing is left in an "any other score" line and the printed figures add to 100.0. They are tenths of a percent, allocated in one pass so they sum exactly, which is also why a cell can sit a tenth from the number you would get dividing it out yourself. A cell the model puts below a tenth of a percent is shown as a floor rather than as 0.0%, because the model did not rule it out. Reconstructed from the expected goals and league low-score correction stored with the sealed prediction. Shown for curiosity; it is not part of the scorecard.

Limited league history. Malaga has almost no recent record in this division, so the prior pulls the rating towards league average.

Public record

What was sealed

Published: 2026-08-28T00:08:56Z
Ledger entry: 2026-08-28.json
Entry hash: 83695200adbcf98e…
Kickoff: 2026-08-30T15:00:00Z

This page is a view of the earliest sealed forecast for this fixture. The JSON entry is the record; later publications cannot replace it.

Sealed, and derived from sealed

Sealed as numbers in 2026-08-28.json: the result, the whole 1-line goal-total ladder, both-teams-to-score, every Asian handicap line, the expected goals. Open the entry and they are there, byte for byte, as published before kickoff.

Derived from sealed inputs, recomputed when this page was built and stored nowhere: the correct-score grid, the winning margin, goals by team, exact total goals, odd/even, clean sheets and win to nil. Each is a different sum of one Dixon-Coles scoreline distribution rebuilt from three numbers that ARE sealed — xg_home, xg_away and the division's rho — at 10 goals a side. No second model, no second fit, nothing fetched. Anyone can recompute them from the entry and get the same figures. The check is worth running: across every sealed prediction that carries the inputs, the derived figures and the sealed ones agree to within 3 parts in 100,000 — which is the rounding you get from an entry that stores the expected goals and rho to four decimal places, and nothing else.

That is also why this card carries no both teams to score, goal-total lines other than 2.5, Asian handicap, corner model: the fixture was first published before those markets were added, and filling them in now would mean rewriting a sealed entry. Later fixtures carry the full set.

Open raw prediction Read the methodology

The scorecard, once a week

Every Monday: how many matches we graded, our log loss, the closing line's, and the gap between them. Nothing else — no picks, no promotions. You are subscribing to a report card, and it arrives whether or not it flatters us.