La Liga Spain

Barcelona

Home

vs Mon 31 Aug, 19:30 UTC Prediction sealed

Vallecano

Away

Dixon-Coles forecast

Match probabilities

Fair odds · no margin

Home 77% 1.30 fair odds

Draw 15% 6.69 fair odds

Away 8% 12.58 fair odds

Expected goals 2.48 – 0.67 Barcelona · Vallecano

Total goals 2.5 61% over 39% under · 1.64 fair odds

The scorecard, once a week

Every Monday: how many matches we graded, our log loss, the closing line's, and the gap between them. Nothing else — no picks, no promotions. You are subscribing to a report card, and it arrives whether or not it flatters us.