Brazil
Brasileirao Serie A
Brazil
Cruzeiro
Home
vs
Prediction sealed
Parana
AwayDixon-Coles forecast
Match probabilities
Home
55%
1.82 fair odds
Draw
26%
3.87 fair odds
Away
19%
5.23 fair odds
Expected goals
1.60 – 0.83
Cruzeiro · Parana
Total goals 2.5
Both teams to score
BTTS
Yes45%2.20 fair odds
No55%1.83 fair odds
Quarter-line grid
Asian handicap
| Home line | Cruzeiro | Parana |
|---|---|---|
| -3.00 | 21.02 | 1.05 |
| -2.75 | 11.29 | 1.10 |
| -2.50 | 7.92 | 1.14 |
| -2.25 | 7.24 | 1.16 |
| -2.00 | 6.57 | 1.18 |
| -1.75 | 4.32 | 1.30 |
| -1.50 | 3.36 | 1.42 |
| -1.25 | 2.94 | 1.52 |
| -1.00 | 2.51 | 1.66 |
| -0.75 | 2.06 | 1.94 |
| -0.50 | 1.82 | 2.23 |
| -0.25 | 1.58 | 2.72 |
| +0.00 | 1.35 | 3.88 |
| +0.25 | 1.28 | 4.56 |
| +0.50 | 1.24 | 5.23 |
| +0.75 | 1.16 | 7.42 |
| +1.00 | 1.08 | 14.28 |
| +1.25 | 1.07 | 15.35 |
| +1.50 | 1.06 | 16.41 |
| +1.75 | 1.04 | 25.93 |
| +2.00 | 1.02 | 66.18 |
| +2.25 | 1.01 | 67.80 |
| +2.50 | 1.01 | 69.41 |
| +2.75 | 1.01 | 116.15 |
| +3.00 | 1.00 | 364.55 |
Scoreline projection
Top 3 correct scores
01
1–0
13.7%
02
1–1
12.1%
03
2–0
11.2%
Reconstructed from the expected goals and league low-score correction stored with the sealed prediction. Shown for curiosity; it is not part of the scorecard.
Limited league history. Parana has almost no recent record in this division, so the prior pulls the rating towards league average.
The scorecard, once a week
Every Monday: how many matches we graded, our log loss, the closing line's, and the gap between them. Nothing else — no picks, no promotions. You are subscribing to a report card, and it arrives whether or not it flatters us.