Serie A Italy

Cagliari

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vs Mon 07 Sep, 16:00 UTC Prediction sealed

Lecce

Away

Dixon-Coles forecast

Match probabilities

Fair odds · no margin

Home 43% 2.31 fair odds

Draw 30% 3.32 fair odds

Away 27% 3.76 fair odds

Expected goals 1.20 – 0.88 Cagliari · Lecce

Total goals 2.5

Over 35% 2.89 fair odds

Under 65% 1.53 fair odds

Scoreline projection

Top 3 correct scores

Indicative only · not graded

01 1–0 14.8%

02 1–1 13.4%

03 0–0 12.7%

Reconstructed from the expected goals and league low-score correction stored with the sealed prediction. Shown for curiosity; it is not part of the scorecard.

The scorecard, once a week

Every Monday: how many matches we graded, our log loss, the closing line's, and the gap between them. Nothing else — no picks, no promotions. You are subscribing to a report card, and it arrives whether or not it flatters us.