Serie A Italy

Udinese

Home

vs Mon 07 Sep, 18:45 UTC Prediction sealed

Lazio

Away

Dixon-Coles forecast

Match probabilities

Fair odds · no margin

Home 31% 3.21 fair odds

Draw 29% 3.51 fair odds

Away 40% 2.48 fair odds

Expected goals 1.07 – 1.26 Udinese · Lazio

Total goals 2.5

Over 41% 2.43 fair odds

Under 59% 1.70 fair odds

Scoreline projection

Top 3 correct scores

Indicative only · not graded

01 1–1 13.4%

02 0–1 12.0%

03 1–0 10.2%

Reconstructed from the expected goals and league low-score correction stored with the sealed prediction. Shown for curiosity; it is not part of the scorecard.

The scorecard, once a week

Every Monday: how many matches we graded, our log loss, the closing line's, and the gap between them. Nothing else — no picks, no promotions. You are subscribing to a report card, and it arrives whether or not it flatters us.