Championship England

Blackburn

Home

vs Tue 08 Sep, 18:45 UTC Prediction sealed

Sheffield United

Away

Dixon-Coles forecast

Match probabilities

Fair odds · no margin

Home 33% 3.05 fair odds

Draw 30% 3.30 fair odds

Away 37% 2.71 fair odds

Expected goals 1.07 – 1.15 Blackburn · Sheffield United

Total goals 2.5

Over 38% 2.61 fair odds

Under 62% 1.62 fair odds

Scoreline projection

Top 3 correct scores

Indicative only · not graded

01 1–1 14.0%

02 0–1 11.8%

03 0–0 11.5%

Reconstructed from the expected goals and league low-score correction stored with the sealed prediction. Shown for curiosity; it is not part of the scorecard.

The scorecard, once a week

Every Monday: how many matches we graded, our log loss, the closing line's, and the gap between them. Nothing else — no picks, no promotions. You are subscribing to a report card, and it arrives whether or not it flatters us.