Championship England

Cardiff

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vs Tue 08 Sep, 18:45 UTC Prediction sealed

Stoke

Away

Dixon-Coles forecast

Match probabilities

Fair odds · no margin

Home 39% 2.57 fair odds

Draw 29% 3.45 fair odds

Away 32% 3.11 fair odds

Expected goals 1.27 – 1.13 Cardiff · Stoke

Total goals 2.5

Over 43% 2.33 fair odds

Under 57% 1.75 fair odds

Scoreline projection

Top 3 correct scores

Indicative only · not graded

01 1–1 13.7%

02 1–0 10.9%

03 0–0 9.8%

Reconstructed from the expected goals and league low-score correction stored with the sealed prediction. Shown for curiosity; it is not part of the scorecard.

The scorecard, once a week

Every Monday: how many matches we graded, our log loss, the closing line's, and the gap between them. Nothing else — no picks, no promotions. You are subscribing to a report card, and it arrives whether or not it flatters us.