Championship England

Southampton

Home

vs Tue 08 Sep, 18:45 UTC Prediction sealed

Swansea

Away

Dixon-Coles forecast

Match probabilities

Fair odds · no margin

Home 57% 1.74 fair odds

Draw 23% 4.43 fair odds

Away 20% 5.00 fair odds

Expected goals 1.98 – 1.10 Southampton · Swansea

Total goals 2.5

Over 59% 1.68 fair odds

Under 41% 2.46 fair odds

Scoreline projection

Top 3 correct scores

Indicative only · not graded

01 1–1 10.5%

02 2–1 9.9%

03 2–0 9.1%

Reconstructed from the expected goals and league low-score correction stored with the sealed prediction. Shown for curiosity; it is not part of the scorecard.

The scorecard, once a week

Every Monday: how many matches we graded, our log loss, the closing line's, and the gap between them. Nothing else — no picks, no promotions. You are subscribing to a report card, and it arrives whether or not it flatters us.