Championship England

Watford

Home

vs Tue 08 Sep, 18:45 UTC Prediction sealed

Preston

Away

Dixon-Coles forecast

Match probabilities

Fair odds · no margin

Home 43% 2.31 fair odds

Draw 28% 3.55 fair odds

Away 29% 3.49 fair odds

Expected goals 1.39 – 1.08 Watford · Preston

Total goals 2.5

Over 45% 2.23 fair odds

Under 55% 1.81 fair odds

Scoreline projection

Top 3 correct scores

Indicative only · not graded

01 1–1 13.4%

02 1–0 11.1%

03 0–0 9.1%

Reconstructed from the expected goals and league low-score correction stored with the sealed prediction. Shown for curiosity; it is not part of the scorecard.

The scorecard, once a week

Every Monday: how many matches we graded, our log loss, the closing line's, and the gap between them. Nothing else — no picks, no promotions. You are subscribing to a report card, and it arrives whether or not it flatters us.