Championship England

Wrexham

Home

vs Tue 08 Sep, 18:45 UTC Prediction sealed

Burnley

Away

Dixon-Coles forecast

Match probabilities

Fair odds · no margin

Home 22% 4.47 fair odds

Draw 27% 3.68 fair odds

Away 51% 1.98 fair odds

Expected goals 0.93 – 1.52 Wrexham · Burnley

Total goals 2.5

Over 44% 2.26 fair odds

Under 56% 1.79 fair odds

Scoreline projection

Top 3 correct scores

Indicative only · not graded

01 1–1 12.8%

02 0–1 12.5%

03 0–2 10.0%

Reconstructed from the expected goals and league low-score correction stored with the sealed prediction. Shown for curiosity; it is not part of the scorecard.

The scorecard, once a week

Every Monday: how many matches we graded, our log loss, the closing line's, and the gap between them. Nothing else — no picks, no promotions. You are subscribing to a report card, and it arrives whether or not it flatters us.