Eredivisie Netherlands

Nijmegen

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vs Tue 08 Sep, 16:45 UTC Prediction sealed

Excelsior

Away

Dixon-Coles forecast

Match probabilities

Fair odds · no margin

Home 61% 1.64 fair odds

Draw 21% 4.72 fair odds

Away 18% 5.56 fair odds

Expected goals 2.25 – 1.17 Nijmegen · Excelsior

Total goals 2.5

Over 67% 1.50 fair odds

Under 33% 2.99 fair odds

Scoreline projection

Top 3 correct scores

Indicative only · not graded

01 2–1 9.7%

02 1–1 9.4%

03 2–0 8.2%

Reconstructed from the expected goals and league low-score correction stored with the sealed prediction. Shown for curiosity; it is not part of the scorecard.

The scorecard, once a week

Every Monday: how many matches we graded, our log loss, the closing line's, and the gap between them. Nothing else — no picks, no promotions. You are subscribing to a report card, and it arrives whether or not it flatters us.