Championship England

Derby

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vs Wed 09 Sep, 18:45 UTC Prediction sealed

West Brom

Away

Dixon-Coles forecast

Match probabilities

Fair odds · no margin

Home 40% 2.52 fair odds

Draw 29% 3.48 fair odds

Away 31% 3.16 fair odds

Expected goals 1.29 – 1.12 Derby · West Brom

Total goals 2.5

Over 43% 2.31 fair odds

Under 57% 1.76 fair odds

Scoreline projection

Top 3 correct scores

Indicative only · not graded

01 1–1 13.6%

02 1–0 11.0%

03 0–0 9.6%

Reconstructed from the expected goals and league low-score correction stored with the sealed prediction. Shown for curiosity; it is not part of the scorecard.

The scorecard, once a week

Every Monday: how many matches we graded, our log loss, the closing line's, and the gap between them. Nothing else — no picks, no promotions. You are subscribing to a report card, and it arrives whether or not it flatters us.