Championship England

Norwich

Home

vs Wed 09 Sep, 18:45 UTC Prediction sealed

Birmingham

Away

Dixon-Coles forecast

Match probabilities

Fair odds · no margin

Home 48% 2.09 fair odds

Draw 26% 3.80 fair odds

Away 26% 3.87 fair odds

Expected goals 1.57 – 1.09 Norwich · Birmingham

Total goals 2.5

Over 50% 2.02 fair odds

Under 50% 1.98 fair odds

Scoreline projection

Top 3 correct scores

Indicative only · not graded

01 1–1 12.6%

02 1–0 10.4%

03 2–1 9.4%

Reconstructed from the expected goals and league low-score correction stored with the sealed prediction. Shown for curiosity; it is not part of the scorecard.

The scorecard, once a week

Every Monday: how many matches we graded, our log loss, the closing line's, and the gap between them. Nothing else — no picks, no promotions. You are subscribing to a report card, and it arrives whether or not it flatters us.