Eredivisie Netherlands

Twente

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vs Wed 09 Sep, 16:45 UTC Prediction sealed

Telstar

Away

Dixon-Coles forecast

Match probabilities

Fair odds · no margin

Home 61% 1.63 fair odds

Draw 22% 4.53 fair odds

Away 17% 5.98 fair odds

Expected goals 2.11 – 1.03 Twente · Telstar

Total goals 2.5

Over 61% 1.65 fair odds

Under 39% 2.54 fair odds

Scoreline projection

Top 3 correct scores

Indicative only · not graded

01 1–1 10.3%

02 2–1 9.9%

03 2–0 9.6%

Reconstructed from the expected goals and league low-score correction stored with the sealed prediction. Shown for curiosity; it is not part of the scorecard.

The scorecard, once a week

Every Monday: how many matches we graded, our log loss, the closing line's, and the gap between them. Nothing else — no picks, no promotions. You are subscribing to a report card, and it arrives whether or not it flatters us.