Primeira Liga Portugal

Moreirense

Home

vs Wed 09 Sep, 19:45 UTC Prediction sealed

Benfica

Away

Dixon-Coles forecast

Match probabilities

Fair odds · no margin

Home 12% 8.10 fair odds

Draw 18% 5.75 fair odds

Away 70% 1.42 fair odds

Expected goals 0.78 – 2.20 Moreirense · Benfica

Total goals 2.5

Over 57% 1.75 fair odds

Under 43% 2.34 fair odds

Scoreline projection

Top 3 correct scores

Indicative only · not graded

01 0–2 12.3%

02 0–1 11.6%

03 1–2 9.6%

Reconstructed from the expected goals and league low-score correction stored with the sealed prediction. Shown for curiosity; it is not part of the scorecard.

The scorecard, once a week

Every Monday: how many matches we graded, our log loss, the closing line's, and the gap between them. Nothing else — no picks, no promotions. You are subscribing to a report card, and it arrives whether or not it flatters us.