Coritiba
HomeParana
AwayDixon-Coles forecast
Match probabilities scored vs close
scored vs close means a public closing price exists for this market in this division, so the forecast is compared with the market on the scorecard and can be shown to lose. forecast only means no free closing benchmark exists for it, so it is measured against guessing and is never presented as an edge claim. Both are sealed before kickoff and neither is ever rewritten.
Both teams to score
BTTS forecast only
Quarter-line grid
Asian handicap forecast only
| Home line | Coritiba | Parana |
|---|---|---|
| -3.00 | 29.71 | 1.03 |
| -2.75 | 15.15 | 1.07 |
| -2.50 | 10.39 | 1.11 |
| -2.25 | 9.64 | 1.12 |
| -2.00 | 8.90 | 1.13 |
| -1.75 | 5.52 | 1.22 |
| -1.50 | 4.16 | 1.32 |
| -1.25 | 3.68 | 1.37 |
| -1.00 | 3.20 | 1.45 |
| -0.75 | 2.49 | 1.67 |
| -0.50 | 2.12 | 1.89 |
| -0.25 | 1.84 | 2.19 |
| +0.00 | 1.56 | 2.78 |
| +0.25 | 1.44 | 3.28 |
| +0.50 | 1.36 | 3.78 |
| +0.75 | 1.25 | 5.02 |
| +1.00 | 1.14 | 8.21 |
| +1.25 | 1.12 | 9.00 |
| +1.50 | 1.11 | 9.80 |
| +1.75 | 1.07 | 14.60 |
| +2.00 | 1.03 | 30.89 |
| +2.25 | 1.03 | 32.09 |
| +2.50 | 1.03 | 33.29 |
| +2.75 | 1.02 | 53.20 |
| +3.00 | 1.01 | 137.17 |
Scoreline projection
Top 3 correct scores
Reconstructed from the expected goals and league low-score correction stored with the sealed prediction. Shown for curiosity; it is not part of the scorecard.
Limited league history. Parana has almost no recent record in this division, so the prior pulls the rating towards league average.
The scorecard, once a week
Every Monday: how many matches we graded, our log loss, the closing line's, and the gap between them. Nothing else — no picks, no promotions. You are subscribing to a report card, and it arrives whether or not it flatters us.