ProofOdds
Germany Bundesliga Germany

Dortmund

Home
vs Prediction sealed

Paderborn

Away

Dixon-Coles forecast

Match probabilities scored vs close

Fair odds · no margin

scored vs close means a public closing price exists for this market in this division, so the forecast is compared with the market on the scorecard and can be shown to lose. forecast only means no free closing benchmark exists for it, so it is measured against guessing and is never presented as an edge claim. Both are sealed before kickoff and neither is ever rewritten.

Home 61% 1.64 fair odds
Draw 25% 4.05 fair odds
Away 14% 7.00 fair odds
Expected goals 1.75 0.73 Dortmund · Paderborn
Total goals 2.5 scored vs close
Over 45% 2.22 fair odds
Under 55% 1.82 fair odds

Both teams to score

BTTS forecast only

Dixon–Coles
Yes44%2.30 fair odds
No56%1.77 fair odds

Quarter-line grid

Asian handicap scored vs close

Fair odds · pushes excluded
Home lineDortmundPaderborn
-3.0014.601.07
-2.758.431.13
-2.506.111.20
-2.255.521.22
-2.004.941.25
-1.753.481.40
-1.502.811.55
-1.252.451.69
-1.002.091.91
-0.751.812.24
-0.501.642.57
-0.251.443.29
+0.001.235.27
+0.251.196.14
+0.501.177.00
+0.751.1110.27
+1.001.0521.35
+1.251.0522.55
+1.501.0423.74
+1.751.0338.62
+2.001.01109.76
+2.251.01111.65
+2.501.01113.54
+2.751.01194.09
+3.001.00680.18

Experimental · HC/AC only

Corners Lab forecast only

Open lab
Expected corners8.0 3.911.8 total
Main total lineO 11.5 · 50%2.00 fair · Under 50%

Scoreline projection

Top 3 correct scores

Indicative only · not graded
01 1–0 13.8%
02 2–0 12.9%
03 1–1 11.5%

Reconstructed from the expected goals and league low-score correction stored with the sealed prediction. Shown for curiosity; it is not part of the scorecard.

Limited league history. Paderborn has almost no recent record in this division, so the prior pulls the rating towards league average.