ProofOdds
Spain La Liga Spain

Real Madrid

Home
vs Prediction sealed

Vallecano

Away

Dixon-Coles forecast

Match probabilities scored vs close

Fair odds · no margin

scored vs close means a public closing price exists for this market in this division, so the forecast is compared with the market on the scorecard and can be shown to lose. forecast only means no free closing benchmark exists for it, so it is measured against guessing and is never presented as an edge claim. Both are sealed before kickoff and neither is ever rewritten.

Home 73% 1.37 fair odds
Draw 17% 5.78 fair odds
Away 10% 10.49 fair odds
Expected goals 2.23 0.66 Real Madrid · Vallecano
Total goals 2.5 scored vs close
Over 55% 1.81 fair odds
Under 45% 2.24 fair odds

Both teams to score

BTTS forecast only

Dixon–Coles
Yes43%2.31 fair odds
No57%1.76 fair odds

Quarter-line grid

Asian handicap scored vs close

Fair odds · pushes excluded
Home lineReal MadridVallecano
-3.006.811.17
-2.754.671.27
-2.503.681.37
-2.253.281.44
-2.002.871.53
-1.752.331.75
-1.502.041.97
-1.251.792.26
-1.001.552.83
-0.751.443.28
-0.501.373.73
-0.251.255.02
+0.001.138.67
+0.251.129.58
+0.501.1110.49
+0.751.0716.17
+1.001.0338.83
+1.251.0340.32
+1.501.0241.81
+1.751.0169.64
+2.001.00216.80
+2.251.00218.94
+2.501.00221.09
+2.751.00383.69
+3.001.001466.26

Experimental · HC/AC only

Corners Lab forecast only

Open lab
Expected corners7.0 3.810.8 total
Main total lineO 10.5 · 50%2.01 fair · Under 50%

Scoreline projection

Top 3 correct scores

Indicative only · not graded
01 2–0 13.8%
02 1–0 12.3%
03 3–0 10.2%

Reconstructed from the expected goals and league low-score correction stored with the sealed prediction. Shown for curiosity; it is not part of the scorecard.