ProofOdds
Spain La Liga Spain

Santander

Home
vs Prediction sealed

Alaves

Away

Dixon-Coles forecast

Match probabilities scored vs close

Fair odds · no margin

scored vs close means a public closing price exists for this market in this division, so the forecast is compared with the market on the scorecard and can be shown to lose. forecast only means no free closing benchmark exists for it, so it is measured against guessing and is never presented as an edge claim. Both are sealed before kickoff and neither is ever rewritten.

Home 47% 2.13 fair odds
Draw 24% 4.09 fair odds
Away 29% 3.50 fair odds
Expected goals 1.63 1.22 Santander · Alaves
Total goals 2.5 scored vs close
Over 54% 1.85 fair odds
Under 46% 2.18 fair odds

Both teams to score

BTTS forecast only

Dixon–Coles
Yes57%1.77 fair odds
No43%2.30 fair odds

Quarter-line grid

Asian handicap scored vs close

Fair odds · pushes excluded
Home lineSantanderAlaves
-3.0026.491.04
-2.7514.051.08
-2.509.771.11
-2.259.071.12
-2.008.381.14
-1.755.351.23
-1.504.091.32
-1.253.631.38
-1.003.171.46
-0.752.481.67
-0.502.131.89
-0.251.872.15
+0.001.612.65
+0.251.483.07
+0.501.403.50
+0.751.284.54
+1.001.167.08
+1.251.157.80
+1.501.138.51
+1.751.0912.35
+2.001.0424.23
+2.251.0425.28
+2.501.0426.32
+2.751.0241.10
+3.001.0197.31

Experimental · HC/AC only

Corners Lab forecast only

Open lab
Expected corners6.6 7.614.2 total
Main total lineO 13.5 · 53%1.88 fair · Under 47%

Scoreline projection

Top 3 correct scores

Indicative only · not graded
01 1–1 11.5%
02 1–0 9.5%
03 2–1 9.4%

Reconstructed from the expected goals and league low-score correction stored with the sealed prediction. Shown for curiosity; it is not part of the scorecard.

Limited league history. Santander has almost no recent record in this division, so the prior pulls the rating towards league average.