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Portugal Primeira Liga Portugal

Famalicao

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vs Prediction sealed

Sp Lisbon

Away

Dixon-Coles forecast

Match probabilities scored vs close

Fair odds · no margin

scored vs close means a public closing price exists for this market in this division, so the forecast is compared with the market on the scorecard and can be shown to lose. forecast only means no free closing benchmark exists for it, so it is measured against guessing and is never presented as an edge claim. Both are sealed before kickoff and neither is ever rewritten.

Home 18% 5.39 fair odds
Draw 22% 4.59 fair odds
Away 60% 1.68 fair odds
Expected goals 0.87 1.79 Famalicao · Sp Lisbon
Total goals 2.5 scored vs close
Over 50% 2.02 fair odds
Under 50% 1.98 fair odds

Both teams to score

BTTS forecast only

Dixon–Coles
Yes48%2.09 fair odds
No52%1.91 fair odds

Quarter-line grid

Asian handicap scored vs close

Fair odds · pushes excluded
Home lineFamalicaoSp Lisbon
-3.00365.761.00
-2.75119.751.01
-2.5071.921.01
-2.2570.361.01
-2.0068.811.01
-1.7527.521.04
-1.5017.481.06
-1.2516.361.07
-1.0015.241.07
-0.757.711.15
-0.505.391.23
-0.254.801.26
+0.004.211.31
+0.253.021.49
+0.502.481.68
+0.752.161.86
+1.001.842.19
+1.251.642.57
+1.501.512.95
+1.751.373.67
+2.001.245.23
+2.251.215.82
+2.501.196.40
+2.751.138.83
+3.001.0715.24

Experimental · HC/AC only

Corners Lab forecast only

Open lab
Expected corners3.8 5.79.5 total
Main total lineO 9.5 · 47%2.13 fair · Under 53%

Scoreline projection

Top 3 correct scores

Indicative only · not graded
01 0–1 13.1%
02 0–2 11.2%
03 1–1 10.3%

Reconstructed from the expected goals and league low-score correction stored with the sealed prediction. Shown for curiosity; it is not part of the scorecard.