scored vs close means a public closing
price exists for this market in this division, so the forecast is compared
with the market on the scorecard and can be shown
to lose. forecast only means no free closing benchmark
exists for it, so it is measured against guessing and is never presented as
an edge claim. Both are sealed before kickoff and neither is ever rewritten.
Home67%1.49 fair odds
Draw17%5.79 fair odds
Away16%6.39 fair odds
Expected goals2.37 – 1.05
Sp Braga · Estoril
Total goals 2.5
scored vs close
Over66%
1.51 fair odds
Under34%
2.96 fair odds
Both teams to score
BTTS forecast only
Dixon–Coles
Yes58%1.71 fair odds
No42%2.40 fair odds
Quarter-line grid
Asian handicap scored vs close
Fair odds · pushes excluded
Home line
Sp Braga
Estoril
-3.00
7.49
1.15
-2.75
5.16
1.24
-2.50
4.06
1.33
-2.25
3.66
1.38
-2.00
3.26
1.44
-1.75
2.62
1.62
-1.50
2.26
1.79
-1.25
2.00
2.00
-1.00
1.74
2.35
-0.75
1.59
2.69
-0.50
1.49
3.04
-0.25
1.36
3.76
+0.00
1.23
5.29
+0.25
1.21
5.84
+0.50
1.19
6.39
+0.75
1.12
9.06
+1.00
1.06
16.92
+1.25
1.06
17.90
+1.50
1.06
18.87
+1.75
1.04
29.03
+2.00
1.02
65.97
+2.25
1.02
67.29
+2.50
1.01
68.61
+2.75
1.01
111.45
+3.00
1.00
302.56
Scoreline projection
Top 3 correct scores
Indicative only · not graded
012–19.7%
022–09.2%
031–08.2%
Reconstructed from the expected goals and league low-score correction stored with the sealed prediction. Shown for curiosity; it is not part of the scorecard.
The scorecard, once a week
Every Monday: how many matches we graded, our log loss, the closing
line's, and the gap between them. Nothing else — no picks, no promotions.
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