ProofOdds
Spain La Liga Spain

Barcelona

Home
vs Prediction sealed

Santander

Away

Dixon-Coles forecast

Match probabilities scored vs close

Fair odds · no margin

scored vs close means a public closing price exists for this market in this division, so the forecast is compared with the market on the scorecard and can be shown to lose. forecast only means no free closing benchmark exists for it, so it is measured against guessing and is never presented as an edge claim. Both are sealed before kickoff and neither is ever rewritten.

Home 84% 1.18 fair odds
Draw 10% 10.39 fair odds
Away 6% 16.92 fair odds
Expected goals 3.49 0.92 Barcelona · Santander
Total goals 2.5 scored vs close
Over 81% 1.23 fair odds
Under 19% 5.40 fair odds

Both teams to score

BTTS forecast only

Dixon–Coles
Yes58%1.72 fair odds
No42%2.39 fair odds

Quarter-line grid

Asian handicap scored vs close

Fair odds · pushes excluded
Home lineBarcelonaSantander
-3.002.631.61
-2.752.261.79
-2.502.031.97
-2.251.832.20
-2.001.642.57
-1.751.532.88
-1.501.463.18
-1.251.343.92
-1.001.235.41
-0.751.205.93
-0.501.186.44
-0.251.138.88
+0.001.0715.30
+0.251.0716.11
+0.501.0616.92
+0.751.0425.60
+1.001.0255.06
+1.251.0256.25
+1.501.0257.45
+1.751.0192.44
+2.001.00241.57
+2.251.00243.20
+2.501.00244.84
+2.751.00409.94
+3.001.001267.48

Scoreline projection

Top 3 correct scores

Indicative only · not graded
01 3–0 8.7%
02 3–1 7.9%
03 4–0 7.6%

Reconstructed from the expected goals and league low-score correction stored with the sealed prediction. Shown for curiosity; it is not part of the scorecard.

Limited league history. Santander has almost no recent record in this division, so the prior pulls the rating towards league average.