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Portugal Primeira Liga Portugal

Nacional

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vs Prediction sealed

Famalicao

Away

Dixon-Coles forecast

Match probabilities scored vs close

Fair odds · no margin

scored vs close means a public closing price exists for this market in this division, so the forecast is compared with the market on the scorecard and can be shown to lose. forecast only means no free closing benchmark exists for it, so it is measured against guessing and is never presented as an edge claim. Both are sealed before kickoff and neither is ever rewritten.

Home 32% 3.14 fair odds
Draw 29% 3.44 fair odds
Away 39% 2.56 fair odds
Expected goals 0.97 1.11 Nacional · Famalicao
Total goals 2.5 scored vs close
Over 34% 2.92 fair odds
Under 66% 1.52 fair odds

Both teams to score

BTTS forecast only

Dixon–Coles
Yes41%2.44 fair odds
No59%1.69 fair odds

Quarter-line grid

Asian handicap scored vs close

Fair odds · pushes excluded
Home lineNacionalFamalicao
-3.00141.841.01
-2.7551.591.02
-2.5031.841.03
-2.2530.521.03
-2.0029.201.04
-1.7513.181.08
-1.508.771.13
-1.257.871.15
-1.006.981.17
-0.754.151.32
-0.503.141.47
-0.252.681.59
+0.002.231.81
+0.251.842.19
+0.501.642.56
+0.751.453.22
+1.001.264.86
+1.251.225.60
+1.501.196.34
+1.751.129.15
+2.001.0618.15
+2.251.0519.25
+2.501.0520.36
+2.751.0332.00
+3.001.0178.78

Scoreline projection

Top 3 correct scores

Indicative only · not graded
01 0–1 14.4%
02 1–1 12.9%
03 1–0 12.7%

Reconstructed from the expected goals and league low-score correction stored with the sealed prediction. Shown for curiosity; it is not part of the scorecard.