National League England

Eastleigh

Home

vs Wed 30 Sep, 18:45 UTC Kickoff passed

Southend

Away

Dixon-Coles forecast

Match probabilities scored vs close

Fair odds · no margin

scored vs close means a public closing price exists for this market in this division, so the forecast is compared with the market on the scorecard and can be shown to lose. forecast only means no free closing benchmark exists for it, so it is measured against guessing and is never presented as an edge claim. sealed, not scored is weaker still: nothing on this site puts a number beside it yet, so it is shown as context and is evidence of nothing until something does. Every market on this card carries one of the three, and they differ line by line — the 2.5 goals line is scored against the close where this division's source carries it and the other lines are not. All three are sealed before kickoff and none of them is ever rewritten.

Home 25% 4.02 fair odds

Draw 24% 4.20 fair odds

Away 51% 1.95 fair odds

Total goals

Goals

Fair odds · no margin

Expected goals 1.12 – 1.71 Eastleigh · Southend

Expected total 2.83 Sealed with the prediction

Every goal-total line sealed with this prediction, and what scores each one.
Line	Over	Under	Scored against
0.5	94% 1.06	6% 17.13	sealed, not scored
1.5	77% 1.29	23% 4.43	sealed, not scored
2.5	54% 1.86	46% 2.17	scored vs close
3.5	32% 3.17	68% 1.46	sealed, not scored
4.5	16% 6.35	84% 1.19	sealed, not scored
5.5	7% 14.69	93% 1.07	sealed, not scored

All 6 lines have been sealed in every prediction since 2 September 2026 and they are read straight out of 2026-09-30.json — nothing on this table is recomputed. The tags are not the same for all six and that is the point: football-data.co.uk publishes a closing price for the 2.5 line and for no other, so 2.5 is compared with the market on the scorecard and the other five are compared with nothing. A line with no benchmark is not a weaker edge claim; it is not an edge claim.

Exact total goals sealed, not scored

0 5.8%
1 16.7%
2 23.6%
3 22.3%
4 15.8%
5 9.0%
6 4.2%
7 1.7%
8 or more 0.9%

These 9 outcomes are one partition of the same distribution: every way the match can end is in exactly one of them, nothing is left in an "any other" line, and they are rounded in a single pass, so the printed figures add to exactly 100.0.

Odd or even total sealed, not scored

Even 50.1%
Odd 49.9%

These 2 outcomes are one partition of the same distribution: every way the match can end is in exactly one of them, nothing is left in an "any other" line, and they are rounded in a single pass, so the printed figures add to exactly 100.0.

Who scores

Both teams to score, clean sheets, win to nil

Dixon–Coles

BTTS forecast only

Yes55%1.81 fair odds

No45%2.23 fair odds

Eastleigh clean sheet sealed, not scored

Yes 18.0%
No 82.0%

Southend clean sheet sealed, not scored

Yes 32.7%
No 67.3%

Eastleigh win to nil sealed, not scored

Yes 12.2%
No 87.8%

Southend win to nil sealed, not scored

Yes 26.8%
No 73.2%

A clean sheet is the opponent failing to score, so Eastleigh's clean sheet is the column of the grid below at nil; a win to nil is that and a win. BTTS is sealed as a number in the entry and is measured against guessing on the scorecard. The four beside it are not sealed as numbers and nothing scores them — they are recomputed here from the sealed expected goals and the division's sealed low-score correction.

Quarter-line grid

Asian handicap scored vs close

Fair odds · pushes excluded

Home line	Eastleigh	Southend
-3.00	139.67	1.01
-2.75	55.33	1.02
-2.50	34.79	1.03
-2.25	33.62	1.03
-2.00	32.46	1.03
-1.75	15.55	1.07
-1.50	10.46	1.11
-1.25	9.66	1.12
-1.00	8.86	1.13
-0.75	5.36	1.23
-0.50	4.02	1.33
-0.25	3.54	1.39
+0.00	3.06	1.48
+0.25	2.40	1.72
+0.50	2.05	1.95
+0.75	1.81	2.23
+1.00	1.57	2.74
+1.25	1.46	3.16
+1.50	1.39	3.58
+1.75	1.28	4.59
+2.00	1.17	6.90
+2.25	1.15	7.54
+2.50	1.14	8.18
+2.75	1.09	11.55
+3.00	1.05	20.89

All 25 lines are sealed in the entry. The source publishes one closing handicap price, at its own main line, and that is the only one of these compared with the market.

By how much

Winning margin sealed, not scored

Recomputed from sealed inputs

Eastleigh by 3+ 2.9%
Eastleigh by 2 6.7%
Eastleigh by 1 15.3%
Draw 23.8%
Southend by 1 23.4%
Southend by 2 15.7%
Southend by 3+ 12.2%

These 7 outcomes are one partition of the same distribution: every way the match can end is in exactly one of them, nothing is left in an "any other" line, and they are rounded in a single pass, so the printed figures add to exactly 100.0.

Each side separately

Goals by team sealed, not scored

Recomputed from sealed inputs

Eastleigh sealed, not scored

0 32.7%
1 36.5%
2 20.5%
3 7.6%
4 2.1%
5 0.5%
6 or more 0.1%

Southend sealed, not scored

0 18.0%
1 30.9%
2 26.5%
3 15.1%
4 6.5%
5 2.2%
6 or more 0.8%

These are the row and column totals of the correct-score grid below, which is why they stop at the same 5 goals it does and fold the rest into one bucket — a reader who wants to check one against the other can.

Scoreline distribution

Correct score sealed, not scored

Every exact score · tail included

Eastleigh goals Southend goals

Chance of each exact score. Rows are goals scored by Eastleigh, columns goals scored by Southend. Scores above 5 goals are in the three buckets below the table.
Goals	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	5.8%	10.1%	8.6%	4.9%	2.1%	0.7%
1	6.6%	11.2%	9.7%	5.5%	2.4%	0.8%
2	3.7%	6.3%	5.4%	3.1%	1.3%	0.5%
3	1.4%	2.4%	2.0%	1.2%	0.5%	0.2%
4	0.4%	0.7%	0.6%	0.3%	0.1%	0.1%
5	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%	0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%

Eastleigh 6+ Southend 0–5 0.1%
Eastleigh 0–5 Southend 6+ 0.8%
Eastleigh 6+ Southend 6+ <0.1%

The 36 cells and the three buckets account for the whole distribution: every result the match can have is in exactly one of them, so nothing is left in an "any other score" line and the printed figures add to 100.0. They are tenths of a percent, allocated in one pass so they sum exactly, which is also why a cell can sit a tenth from the number you would get dividing it out yourself. A cell the model puts below a tenth of a percent is shown as a floor rather than as 0.0%, because the model did not rule it out. Reconstructed from the expected goals and league low-score correction stored with the sealed prediction. Shown for curiosity; it is not part of the scorecard.

Public record

What was sealed

Published: 2026-09-30T00:09:17Z
Ledger entry: 2026-09-30.json
Entry hash: 92dddfbcfa001366…
Kickoff: 2026-09-30T18:45:00Z

This page is a view of the earliest sealed forecast for this fixture. The JSON entry is the record; later publications cannot replace it.

Sealed, and derived from sealed

Sealed as numbers in 2026-09-30.json: the result, the whole 6-line goal-total ladder, both-teams-to-score, every Asian handicap line, the expected goals. Open the entry and they are there, byte for byte, as published before kickoff.

Derived from sealed inputs, recomputed when this page was built and stored nowhere: the correct-score grid, the winning margin, goals by team, exact total goals, odd/even, clean sheets and win to nil. Each is a different sum of one Dixon-Coles scoreline distribution rebuilt from three numbers that ARE sealed — xg_home, xg_away and the division's rho — at 10 goals a side. No second model, no second fit, nothing fetched. Anyone can recompute them from the entry and get the same figures. The check is worth running: across every sealed prediction that carries the inputs, the derived figures and the sealed ones agree to within 3 parts in 100,000 — which is the rounding you get from an entry that stores the expected goals and rho to four decimal places, and nothing else.

That is also why this card carries no corner model: the fixture was first published before that market was added, and filling it in now would mean rewriting a sealed entry. Later fixtures carry the full set.

Open raw prediction Read the methodology

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