England
League One
England
Milton Keynes Dons
HomeReading
AwayDixon-Coles forecast
Match probabilities scored vs close
scored vs close means a public closing price exists for this market in this division, so the forecast is compared with the market on the scorecard and can be shown to lose. forecast only means no free closing benchmark exists for it, so it is measured against guessing and is never presented as an edge claim. sealed, not scored is weaker still: nothing on this site puts a number beside it yet, so it is shown as context and is evidence of nothing until something does. Every market on this card carries one of the three, and they differ line by line — the 2.5 goals line is scored against the close where this division's source carries it and the other lines are not. All three are sealed before kickoff and none of them is ever rewritten.
Total goals
Goals
| Line | Over | Under | Scored against |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 93% 1.07 | 7% 14.54 | sealed, not scored |
| 1.5 | 75% 1.33 | 25% 4.01 | sealed, not scored |
| 2.5 | 50% 1.98 | 50% 2.02 | scored vs close |
| 3.5 | 28% 3.52 | 72% 1.40 | sealed, not scored |
| 4.5 | 14% 7.36 | 86% 1.16 | sealed, not scored |
| 5.5 | 6% 17.84 | 94% 1.06 | sealed, not scored |
All 6 lines have been sealed in every prediction since 2 September 2026 and they are read straight out of 2026-10-10.json — nothing on this table is recomputed. The tags are not the same for all six and that is the point: football-data.co.uk publishes a closing price for the 2.5 line and for no other, so 2.5 is compared with the market on the scorecard and the other five are compared with nothing. A line with no benchmark is not a weaker edge claim; it is not an edge claim.
Exact total goals sealed, not scored
- 0 6.9%
- 1 18.0%
- 2 24.6%
- 3 22.0%
- 4 14.8%
- 5 8.0%
- 6 3.6%
- 7 1.4%
- 8 or more 0.7%
These 9 outcomes are one partition of the same distribution: every way the match can end is in exactly one of them, nothing is left in an "any other" line, and they are rounded in a single pass, so the printed figures add to exactly 100.0.
Odd or even total sealed, not scored
- Even 50.4%
- Odd 49.6%
These 2 outcomes are one partition of the same distribution: every way the match can end is in exactly one of them, nothing is left in an "any other" line, and they are rounded in a single pass, so the printed figures add to exactly 100.0.
Who scores
Both teams to score, clean sheets, win to nil
BTTS forecast only
Milton Keynes Dons clean sheet sealed, not scored
- Yes 24.5%
- No 75.5%
These 2 outcomes are one partition of the same distribution: every way the match can end is in exactly one of them, nothing is left in an "any other" line, and they are rounded in a single pass, so the printed figures add to exactly 100.0.
Reading clean sheet sealed, not scored
- Yes 27.7%
- No 72.3%
These 2 outcomes are one partition of the same distribution: every way the match can end is in exactly one of them, nothing is left in an "any other" line, and they are rounded in a single pass, so the printed figures add to exactly 100.0.
Milton Keynes Dons win to nil sealed, not scored
- Yes 17.6%
- No 82.4%
These 2 outcomes are one partition of the same distribution: every way the match can end is in exactly one of them, nothing is left in an "any other" line, and they are rounded in a single pass, so the printed figures add to exactly 100.0.
Reading win to nil sealed, not scored
- Yes 20.8%
- No 79.2%
These 2 outcomes are one partition of the same distribution: every way the match can end is in exactly one of them, nothing is left in an "any other" line, and they are rounded in a single pass, so the printed figures add to exactly 100.0.
A clean sheet is the opponent failing to score, so Milton Keynes Dons's clean sheet is the column of the grid below at nil; a win to nil is that and a win. BTTS is sealed as a number in the entry and is measured against guessing on the scorecard. The four beside it are not sealed as numbers and nothing scores them — they are recomputed here from the sealed expected goals and the division's sealed low-score correction.
Quarter-line grid
Asian handicap scored vs close
| Home line | Milton Keynes Dons | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| -3.00 | 67.63 | 1.02 |
| -2.75 | 30.01 | 1.03 |
| -2.50 | 19.54 | 1.05 |
| -2.25 | 18.58 | 1.06 |
| -2.00 | 17.62 | 1.06 |
| -1.75 | 9.48 | 1.12 |
| -1.50 | 6.69 | 1.18 |
| -1.25 | 6.05 | 1.20 |
| -1.00 | 5.41 | 1.23 |
| -0.75 | 3.68 | 1.37 |
| -0.50 | 2.93 | 1.52 |
| -0.25 | 2.55 | 1.65 |
| +0.00 | 2.17 | 1.86 |
| +0.25 | 1.84 | 2.18 |
| +0.50 | 1.66 | 2.51 |
| +0.75 | 1.49 | 3.06 |
| +1.00 | 1.31 | 4.21 |
| +1.25 | 1.26 | 4.77 |
| +1.50 | 1.23 | 5.34 |
| +1.75 | 1.16 | 7.32 |
| +2.00 | 1.09 | 12.68 |
| +2.25 | 1.08 | 13.52 |
| +2.50 | 1.07 | 14.37 |
| +2.75 | 1.05 | 21.53 |
| +3.00 | 1.02 | 45.17 |
All 25 lines are sealed in the entry. The source publishes one closing handicap price, at its own main line, and that is the only one of these compared with the market.
By how much
Winning margin sealed, not scored
- Milton Keynes Dons by 3+ 5.1%
- Milton Keynes Dons by 2 9.8%
- Milton Keynes Dons by 1 19.2%
- Draw 26.0%
- Reading by 1 21.1%
- Reading by 2 11.8%
- Reading by 3+ 7.0%
These 7 outcomes are one partition of the same distribution: every way the match can end is in exactly one of them, nothing is left in an "any other" line, and they are rounded in a single pass, so the printed figures add to exactly 100.0.
Each side separately
Goals by team sealed, not scored
Milton Keynes Dons sealed, not scored
- 0 27.7%
- 1 35.6%
- 2 22.8%
- 3 9.8%
- 4 3.1%
- 5 0.8%
- 6 or more 0.2%
These 7 outcomes are one partition of the same distribution: every way the match can end is in exactly one of them, nothing is left in an "any other" line, and they are rounded in a single pass, so the printed figures add to exactly 100.0.
Reading sealed, not scored
- 0 24.5%
- 1 34.5%
- 2 24.2%
- 3 11.4%
- 4 4.0%
- 5 1.1%
- 6 or more 0.3%
These 7 outcomes are one partition of the same distribution: every way the match can end is in exactly one of them, nothing is left in an "any other" line, and they are rounded in a single pass, so the printed figures add to exactly 100.0.
These are the row and column totals of the correct-score grid below, which is why they stop at the same 5 goals it does and fold the rest into one bucket — a reader who wants to check one against the other can.
Scoreline distribution
Correct score sealed, not scored
Milton Keynes Dons goals Reading goals
| Goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9% | 9.4% | 6.7% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 8.6% | 12.4% | 8.6% | 4.0% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| 2 | 5.6% | 7.9% | 5.5% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| 3 | 2.4% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | <0.1% |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
- Milton Keynes Dons 6+ Reading 0–5 0.2%
- Milton Keynes Dons 0–5 Reading 6+ 0.3%
- Milton Keynes Dons 6+ Reading 6+ <0.1%
The 36 cells and the three buckets account for the whole distribution: every result the match can have is in exactly one of them, so nothing is left in an "any other score" line and the printed figures add to 100.0. They are tenths of a percent, allocated in one pass so they sum exactly, which is also why a cell can sit a tenth from the number you would get dividing it out yourself. A cell the model puts below a tenth of a percent is shown as a floor rather than as 0.0%, because the model did not rule it out. Reconstructed from the expected goals and league low-score correction stored with the sealed prediction. Shown for curiosity; it is not part of the scorecard.
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